On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

In his bestselling book, *The Signal and the Noise*, Nate Silver illustrated how forecasting would shape the Big Data era. Now, in his compelling new work, Silver explores “the River”—a community of individuals who excel at managing risk and, in turn, influence much of modern life.

These professional risk-takers—ranging from poker players and hedge fund managers to crypto enthusiasts and blue-chip art collectors—offer valuable lessons on navigating the uncertainties of the twenty-first century. By delving into the lives of figures like Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, and Sam Altman, Silver sheds light on various issues that impact us all, from financial innovations to the future of AI.

Most of us lack the characteristics typical of those in the River: a high tolerance for risk, a comfort with uncertainty, a knack for numbers, and a skepticism of conventional wisdom, all driven by an intense competitive spirit. For River members, complexity is inherent, and their challenge is to navigate it. As they accumulate increasing wealth and influence, understanding their mindset—and the flaws within it—is crucial to grasping the forces shaping technology and the global economy today.

*On the Edge* takes readers behind the scenes, from casinos to venture capital firms and from the inner workings of FTX to gatherings of the effective altruism movement, offering a thoroughly reported, all-access look into a hidden realm of power brokers and risk-takers.