Noise; A Flaw in Human Judgment

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, comes a groundbreaking exploration into why people make poor judgments and how we can improve them—“a tour de force” (New York Times).

Consider the scenario where two doctors in the same city give differing diagnoses to identical patients, or two judges in the same courthouse deliver vastly different sentences for the same crime. Imagine different interviewers at the same company making inconsistent decisions about identical job applicants, or a company’s response to customer complaints varying depending on who answers the phone. Now, picture the same doctor, judge, interviewer, or customer service agent making different choices depending on whether it’s morning or afternoon, or Monday instead of Wednesday. These examples illustrate noise—unpredictable variability in decisions that should be consistent.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein reveal the harmful impact of noise in areas such as medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, personnel selection, and more. Wherever judgments are made, noise is present. However, individuals and organizations often fail to recognize its existence. By applying simple strategies, people can minimize both noise and bias, leading to significantly better decision-making.

Filled with fresh insights and research-driven ideas, Noise delivers the same level of groundbreaking wisdom that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge New York Times bestsellers. It explains why humans are so vulnerable to noise in judgment—and offers practical solutions for reducing its effects.