Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

At its core, Bayes’s theorem outlines the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of related conditions. In *Everything Is Predictable*, Tom Chivers explores how this theorem influences every facet of our lives. He discusses how highly accurate screening tests can result in false positives and how neglecting this in legal contexts has led to the wrongful imprisonment of innocent individuals. Many consider Bayes’s theorem a fundamental principle of rational thought, applicable to nearly every domain.

But who was the man behind this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician develop a concept that would impact diverse fields like medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

Blending biography, incisive science writing, and intellectual history, *Everything Is Predictable* offers an engaging exploration of Bayes’s theorem and its significance in contemporary life, illustrating how one powerful idea can have far-reaching effects.